OpenAI 阿尔特曼谈 AI 导致大规模失业

9 月 30 日消息，OpenAI 首席执行官萨姆・阿尔特曼（Sam Altman）9 月 26 日在接受 Indeed 采访时谈到了“AI 导致失业”的问题。

他表示，“我相信，未来会有很多工作，而且其中许多工作看起来会与今天的工作有所不同，但我们似乎永远不会无事可做。”

Chris Hyams：我经常被问到一个问题，我很想听听你的想法。AI 的创新速度令人惊叹，目前正在读大一的本科生，到毕业时可能会发现他们学习的一些东西已经过时。你会对一名高中生或大学生说些什么，帮助他们为未来做好准备？

Sam Altman：我认为最明确、最明显的两件事是：第一，你必须学会使用这些工具。当我上学时，计算机编程就已经很流行了，但却与今天完全不同。人们当时也会谈到类似的话题，他们现在对 AI 的看法和当年对编程的看法是一样的，就像，“哦，这将改变很多事情，这将使今天很多工作消失。”对我来说，最明显的地方在于，“好吧，如果是这样，如果它将产生非常大的影响，那么我最好非常擅长使用这个工具。”我认为计算机编程产生的影响是积极且广泛的，虽然导致部分事物消失，但同时也创造了更多的新事物，并为我们提供了更多做新事的能力。回想起来，这是一个非常好的决定，我们应该非常熟悉这种工具，而现在也是如此。你需要真正熟悉这些新工具，因为我们不知道未来的工作会是什么样子。

我相信，未来会有很多工作，而且其中许多工作看起来也会与今天的工作有所不同。但我们似乎永远不会无事可做。

第二件事是我稍微提到的，我认为我们可以对人类关心的事物做出一些深刻真实的陈述，那就是弄清楚如何创造这些东西，弄清楚如何构建人们未来想要的体验、产品和服务 —— 弄清楚如何对人们有用 —— 这似乎是一件非常有价值的事情，比任何特定的知识都更重要。

Chris Hyams: So one question that I get a lot, and I’d love to hear your thoughts: The pace of innovation is breathtaking in AI right now, and an undergraduate who is a freshman in college right now, by the time they graduate might find that some of the things that they’re learning might be potentially obsolete by the time they graduate. What would you say to a high school student or a college student on what they should be studying to help them prepare for the future? Sam Altman: I mean, the clearest, most obvious two things to say: Number one, you’ve got to learn to use the tools. When I was in school, computer programming was already popular, but nothing like it is popular today. And people would say the same things — many of the same things — they say about AI now than they would say about programming, which is like, 'Oh man, this is going to change things so much, and this is going to make a lot of the jobs of today go away.' And to me, the most obvious thing was, 'Well, if that’s the case, I’d better get really good at using this tool if that’s the thing that’s going to have this big impact.' And I think the story on computer programming has been a huge net positive. It has made some classes of jobs go away; it’s made way more new things happen, and also given us the ability to do a lot of new things. But in retrospect, that was a really good decision that I should  get very comfortable with that tool. And I think the same thing is true now. You want to get really comfortable with these new tools because we don’t know exactly what the jobs of the future are going to look like.  I’m confident that there will be lots of jobs, and also that many of them will look somewhat different than the jobs of today. But we never seem to run out of stuff to do. Thing number two is, which I touch on a little bit, I think we can say some deeply true statements about what humans seem to care about, and that figuring out how to create those things, figuring out how to build the experiences, products and services that people of the future are going to want — figure out how to be useful to people — that seems like a really valuable thing, more than any specific set of knowledge.

阿尔特曼的观点与硅谷投资者维诺德・科斯拉（Vinod Khosla）的观点形成了鲜明对比。科斯拉预测，人工智能将取代 80% 的工作岗位中 80% 的任务。他警告说，与以前的技术变革不同，工人们可能无法简单地升级他们的技能来避免失业。

然而，美国招聘网站 Indeed 最近的一项研究确定了 2800 多项工作技能，并得出结论，其中没有一项“很可能”被人工智能取代。

Indeed 的首席经济学家 Svenja Gudell 承认，一些人可能会因为技术进步而失去工作，但他强调，目前的 AI 技术还无法取代人类在仓库工作等方面的工作。